GNK Dinamo Zagreb is projected to finish right on the edge of qualification for the Europa League knockout stages. According to a new analysis by Football Meets Data, the Croatian champions are forecast to end the league phase in 24th place with eight points, the final spot that leads to the knockout round playoffs.
Finishing 24th in the revamped competition format would see Dinamo enter a playoff for the round of 16. They would face a team from 9th or 10th place, currently projected to be Milan or Crystal Palace. Every one of the seven remaining league phase matches will be key to achieving this goal, as the projected points margin is extremely tight. Sturm Graz, for instance, is forecast to finish 25th with just seven points, one behind Dinamo.
The projection assumes Dinamo will collect two wins and two draws from their eight matches, with a goal difference of -4. The first step towards that scenario was taken with a 0-0 draw against Hapoel Beer Sheva in Bucharest. That Israeli side is itself projected to finish 33rd with only four points. The rest of the bottom half of the table includes teams like Omonia, Levski, NEC Nijmegen, and Lech Poznań.
Domestic context
This European outlook comes as Dinamo sit third in the HNL with ten points from four matches. Their recent form reads LDWDW, with two wins, two draws, and one defeat. The team also has a +8 goal difference in the league, with top scorer D. Beljo netting seven times. The next domestic task is an away fixture against NK Slaven Belupo on October 17th, an opportunity to get back to winning ways before European challenges resume.
The new Europa League league phase features 36 clubs competing in a single table. Each plays eight matches against eight different opponents. The top eight teams advance directly to the round of 16, while sides placed 9th through 24th enter the playoffs. Dinamo's projected position is precisely on that critical threshold. With projections subject to change after each new result, every point in the remaining matches will carry immense weight for the Blues.
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